Key takeaways
- NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft fly into storms like Hurricane Isaias to collect data that satellites cannot capture, according to ABC News.
- That data helps forecasters track a storm's strength and improve forecasts, which is the basis for evacuations and industry shutdowns.
- Isaias was forecast as a Category 3 storm with winds up to 120 mph, though one NBC video headline reports a downgrade to Category 2 near landfall.
- Public reporting so far doesn't detail the specific instruments, flight counts or forecast models used for Isaias.
NOAA’s hurricane hunter aircraft flew into Hurricane Isaias to gather data that satellites can’t capture, according to ABC News. Forecasters use that data to track the storm’s strength and sharpen their forecasts. Isaias was forecast as a Category 3 hurricane with winds up to 120 mph, with landfall expected Friday night, Oct. 9, or early Saturday, Oct. 10.
Public detail on the technology is thin, so the rest of this piece shows how much rides on that data.
What do NOAA hurricane hunters do?
NOAA hurricane hunters are aircraft that fly into storms to collect data satellites cannot capture. Forecasters use what the crews bring back to track a storm’s strength and to improve their forecasts, according to ABC News. For Isaias, the National Hurricane Center put that strength at Category 3, with winds up to 120 mph.
That’s the full description in the available reporting. ABC’s piece is a video report on what the hunters can see inside the storm, and the published details don’t list the instruments or the measurements.
The gap satellites leave
Hurricane hunters exist because satellites can’t capture everything a forecaster needs. So crews fly out and collect the rest firsthand, inside the storm, where the answer lives. That data helps track strength and improve forecasts, according to ABC News, though the video’s public summary is short on specifics.
It’s a sensible design when you consider the stakes. A storm that can shut in about 1.3 million barrels a day of oil production and send people packing across three states is being measured, in part, by people physically flying into it.
The reporting so far doesn’t say how many flights Isaias drew, which crews flew them, or how the findings were fed into forecast models. Anyone who tells you precisely how the Isaias model runs were adjusted is going beyond what’s public.
Where the forecast was still moving
Even with the data, accounts of Isaias differed near landfall. Most reports described a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. One NBC News video headline says the storm was downgraded to Category 2 as landfall approached. That claim rests on headline wording alone, since the NBC item has no article text.
Location varied too. According to CNBC, the National Hurricane Center said the storm was heading toward Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle. NBC’s video headlines say Isaias made landfall in Florida and that conditions were intensifying in Pensacola. The panhandle was on the Hurricane Center’s list, so the accounts may not conflict, but the exact landfall point and time haven’t been confirmed.
PBS NewsHour interviewed National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan about what to expect, though the published summary doesn’t spell out what he said. CBS News talked with Jeff Smitherman, who heads Alabama’s emergency management agency, about the state’s preparations hours before landfall.
What the forecast set in motion
A forecast is only useful if someone acts on it, and plenty of people did. Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency. Residents evacuated and stocked up on supplies, and one couple postponed their wedding, according to PBS and NBC.
Industry moved too. By Thursday, producers had halted about 1.3 million barrels per day of Gulf of Mexico output, roughly 63% of the US Gulf total, per BSEE data cited by CNBC. That number may have changed by Friday.
The track mattered to refiners as well. CNBC reported that the storm seemed to be bending away from the heavily built-up refining corridor around New Orleans and Baton Rouge. Two plants still sat in hurricane-warning zones: Chevron’s Pascagoula refinery in Mississippi and Vertex Energy’s Saraland site in Alabama. Together they hold 466,000 barrels per day of capacity, or 2.4% of US refining capacity. CNBC’s opening line rounds that to about 2%.
Chevron spokesperson Ross Allen said the Pascagoula refinery was still operating as of Thursday. Vertex hadn’t commented.
Why the data matters if you buy fuel or ship goods
If you drive or run a business that depends on diesel, the quality of a hurricane forecast shows up in your costs. Fuel markets react to where a storm is expected to go and how hard it will hit, long before anyone knows the damage.
The timing is poor. Gulf Coast refineries were running at about 95% of capacity, according to CNBC, which leaves no slack to replace lost output. US diesel stocks were at their lowest for this time of year since the Energy Information Administration’s records began in 1982. Prices were already elevated because refineries had been disrupted by fighting in Eastern Europe and the Middle East.
Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, named the main refinery threat plainly:
“The biggest risk to these two refineries are a loss of electricity or flooding damage.”
He estimates an undamaged refinery that shuts down would need one to two weeks to restart. That’s one analyst’s estimate, not a company timeline.
In past Gulf refinery outages, fuel prices rose while crude prices fell, because refineries stopped buying crude and stopped making fuel. Lipow expects tanker delays for crude deliveries and fuel loadings. On Florida, he said:
“Florida will experience delays in receiving gasoline, jet fuel and diesel.”
If you’re in Florida and run a fleet or a delivery operation, I’d plan for late fuel rather than only higher prices. Nobody has put a price number on this yet.
What we still don’t know
On the technology, the specifics are missing. The public reporting doesn’t say which instruments the hunter crews used, how many flights went into Isaias, or how forecasters weighted that data against other inputs. It also doesn’t describe the forecast models.
On the storm, several basics are open. The exact landfall location and time aren’t confirmed, and neither is the final intensity, Category 3 or Category 2. Damage, casualties and power-outage totals haven’t been reported. Nor has the number of people ordered to evacuate.
On energy, nobody has said whether the Pascagoula and Saraland refineries lost power, flooded or shut down. How long the Gulf shut-ins last, and how far fuel prices rise, are open too. The Georgia-Alabama football game in Tuscaloosa went ahead after the storm, according to Fox News, which is a small sign of how fast things moved on in some places.
Related gear
Disclosure: some links in this article are affiliate links or our editor's own courses and book. If you buy through them, TechyCluster or its editor may earn money at no extra cost to you. This does not influence what we cover or how we cover it. As an Amazon Associate, TechyCluster earns from qualifying purchases.
Frequently asked questions
What do NOAA hurricane hunters do?
They fly aircraft into storms to collect data that satellites cannot capture. According to ABC News, forecasters use that data to track a storm's strength and improve forecasts.
How strong was Hurricane Isaias?
PBS NewsHour and CNBC described it as a Category 3 hurricane with winds up to 120 mph heading for the Gulf Coast. An NBC News video headline says it was downgraded to Category 2 as landfall approached, but that rests on headline wording only.
Where did Hurricane Isaias make landfall?
It isn't confirmed in the available reporting. The National Hurricane Center said the storm was heading toward Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida panhandle, and NBC video headlines say it made landfall in Florida.
Which states declared emergencies for Hurricane Isaias?
Florida and Alabama declared states of emergency, according to NBC News.
Will Hurricane Isaias affect fuel prices?
Analyst Andy Lipow expects delays in gasoline, jet fuel and diesel deliveries to Florida. How much prices rise hasn't been reported, and diesel stocks were already at record lows for this time of year.
Get the next one in your inbox. One email a day with the tech stories that matter, explained in plain English. Subscribe free.
Sources
This article was compiled from reporting by the following outlets. Links go to the original reports.
- PBS NewsHour: What to expect as Hurricane Isaias bears down on the Gulf Coast as a major storm
- NBC News: 'Hopefully we have a home to go back to': Florida resident evacuates ahead of Hurricane Isaias landfall
- CBS News: Alabama emergency management director talks Hurricane Isaias
- ABC News: WATCH: What NOAA’s 'hurricane hunters' can see inside Hurricane Isaias
- Fox News: The storm is here: Georgia-Alabama set to write latest chapter after chaotic week around Hurricane Isaias
- CNBC Top: Hurricane Isaias disrupts U.S. oil production in Gulf of Mexico, threatens refineries